Accidental Jurist has an excellent analysis of the campaigns so far of each candidate in the provincial NDP leadership race - how they got
into the race, what they've done so far, the strategies they'll need to
be successful now that the membership deadline has passed and the
campaign's entered its final phase.
Lingenfelter - "The Collective Memory"
Higgins - "The Comeback"
Meili - "The Movement"
Pedersen - "The Lone Wolf"
Because the Jurist has done his usual well-thought out, rational analysis, I thought I'd take a slightly different approach and play armchair quarterback for the Meili campaign.
Lingenfelter is no doubt the front runner so the first question to be asked by the Meili campaign is "by how much?" If I'm being completely honest, Ryan winning on the first ballot would seem all but impossible barring some major scandal for Link (sorry, a highly edited clip from a political roast probably ain't gonna do it - even if it's now over 2000 views and getting some mainstream media mentions) or a major endorsement or other good fortune for Meili (I know why high-level party figures such as Calvert, Romanow, Blankeney, etc. don't endorse candidates but it's really too bad. If they honestly believe one of the candidates - whether it's Link, Meili or someone else - is the best person for the future of the NDP, why not add their voices to the conversation? Isn't that a more principled stand than being "neutral"?)
Since he's not the front runner, Meili's strategy is likely one of trying to keep Link from running away with things, keep raising awareness and momentum over the next month and a half with a goal of a strong second place finish after the first ballot then hoping that the majority of other members who supported either Pedersen (quite likely) or Higgins (not as likely since, as the Jurist points out, some Higgins support will go to Link) will break for him rather than Lingenfelter.
Part of the reason Lingenfelter is the front runner is because he has a lot of name recognition within the party and I hate to even say it but there are probably a lot of casual members who will check his name because it's the only one they recognize.
Of course, those who are interested enough in politics to at least pony up the ten spot to buy a membership should also know the name of MLA Deb Higgins as well and yet another question is just how much of an "Anybody But Lingenfelter" sentiment there really is out there.
This is a bit of a digression but a good time to address this sentiment which I've hinted at a couple times times on my blog but never really talked about openly - namely, why is there an "Anybody But Lingenfelter" sentiment?
In no particular order...
- Link is seen as being to the right of the party.
- He went to Alberta when some would say that Saskatchewan needed him the most.
- Worse for many, he took a job in government relations with an oil & gas company.
- He's open to nuclear development in Saskatchewan unlike all three other candidates who are all opposed.
- Many see him as representing the party's past rather than its future.
- Some find his bearing to be arrogant and off-putting.
- I think it's a bullshit argument and debated even listing it. But the fact is that there will be some who are against Link because they don't like that he is remarried and/or that he's remarried to someone much younger than him and/or that he's remarried to someone from Columbia. As I said, it's a bullshit argument as far as I'm concerned. But the Star-Phoenix story I linked to earlier mentions that he's divorced so this line of reasoning is getting at least some attention from the mainstream media.
So what do you do if you're Ryan Meili and trying to run a positive campaign (he says, having just mentioned the most stupid scandalous story out there about Ryan's opponent!) that's about the future of the party while also facing the enormous hurdle of running against a well-known, well-funded, well-supported candidate?
- One of the biggest opportunities is the mailer that apparently goes to every registered party member prior to the convention and contains information supplied by each candidate about themselves and their campaign. I've seen firsthand - for myself and with others - how people who meet Ryan and hear his story and his background like him. Although not quite the same as a face-to-face meeting, this mailer will be Ryan's best opportunity to introduce himself to the entire party in one fell swoop.
- That Ryan seems to do really well with young people is no surprise. What's perhaps more surprising is that he also does well with party old-timers who've been around for a long time and remember Tommy Douglas as a contemporary. So the biggest group Ryan has to reach is the Baby Boomers who (I'm just guessing on this) make up the bulk of the party and who identify with Link as their own contemporary. There are a variety of ways to do this - one of the biggest for all of these Boomers who are newly retired or nearing retirement would be to talk a lot more about his idea for SaskPharm, a Crown Corp dedicated to making affordable generic drugs, right here in Saskatchewan for use by our citizens and for sale to other markets. I don't think the "party renewal/time to hand over the mantle of leadership" argument works with many Boomers because frankly, many of them aren't ready for that yet and resent these young punks coming in and wanting the world without paying their dues.
- Continue to utilize Web 2.0 tools and expand greatly on this - Ryan should have video clips on YouTube, photos on Flickr, regular blog posts by him (or others at the top levels of his campaign since his schedule is so busy), more Twitter updates, even more happening on his already busy Facebook pages and so on. In terms of cost effectiveness in terms of money and space/time, this is easily the best way to reach people. And the old stereotypes about people in rural areas not being web savvy or having high speed and knowing the tools fades every day. When the main question I was asked when doing computer & Internet training around SE Saskatchewan last winter was about satellite internet for farms, you know things have changed!
- The three big strikes against Lingenfelter as far as I can see are:
1) he's open to nuclear development
2) he went to Alberta for a number of years before returning to run for the party leadership
3) he represents the past of the party while Ryan represents its future.
Ryan is running a positive campaign so he can't be seen as being too aggressive on any of these points. But he should be able to bring them up as relevant to the argument about who would make the best leader. The Alberta point is a bit tougher to justify as an appropriate line of attack compared to the other two things. But in a province where the biggest joke of the past decade was about "the last person to leave turning off the lights" and where many of those leaving the province headed for the "streets paved with gold" land of Oil-berta (guilty!), the resentment about Link having "deserted" the party and the province is out there. I'm not sure how Ryan can raise this and keep it positive but if there's a way, I'd do it. Perhaps just stressing that he's a lifelong Saskatchewan resident would be enough?
- I have one idea I've passed on to others involved in Ryan's campaign which is sort of related to the Web 2.0 area but I won't post it here. It's no great secret but not worth tipping the hand in case it goes forward.
- I think there are a few places where Ryan's missed good to great opportunities to build his campaign but I'm obviously not going to get into them here. Maybe after June 6, no matter what happens at the convention?
Those are just a few random ideas off the top of my head of how Ryan might improve his chances of beating Dwain Lingenfelter. But now that the deadline for signing up new members and renewing lapsed memberships has passed, ultimately the only thing Ryan can do to win is convince a majority of the ten or twelve thousand NDP members that he is the best choice for leader of the party. Can he do it? I honestly believe that he can!
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Sunday, April 26
Armchair Quarterbacking the Ryan Meili Campaign
by
Jason
on Sun 26 Apr 2009 09:55 PM CST
Thursday, April 23
Going to the Candidates' Debate Part Deux: Bloggers Collide!
by
Jason
on Thu 23 Apr 2009 11:15 PM CST
Shea and I managed to wrangle a babysitter (thanks dad!) so were both able to attend the final NDP leadership debate forum tonight.
The Accidental Jurist and I ended up sitting next to each other and when I introduced Shea to him, I explained, "he's the guy who puts thought into his posts, fact-checks and keeps things fairly level-headed while I'm the guy who spouts off the first things to come to mind during commercials in the playoff games." Speaking of...here's his thoughts on the night and here's some random impressions from me... - all candidates did well as the Jurist said. I think the biggest thing that sets Ryan apart in my mind is that if you imagine a typical politician, that's what the other three sound like to me. And Ryan, after being on the treadmill for a few months, still manages to sound like a real person. (Shea put it differently - "the other three sound like they're thinking about how to become Premier as their main focus, Ryan honestly sounds like he's thinking about what the future of the province will look like.") - That sort of got me thinking, "Why does Dwain Lingenfelter want to be the leader of the NDP?" Seriously, not the politician answer about loving this province and unicorns and rainbows. But really - why? He had a sweet government relations job with an oil company in Alberta. He was traveling the world. He has a lovely young family. He'd been away from politics for what, a decade? He's roughly my dad's age (and my dad's semi-retired and a grandfather.) So why would you come back to the fold? - I submitted a question at the forum. It didn't get picked. Oh well. All of the questions were very issue-based - something about youth (check), something about First Nations (check), something about seniors (check), something about the environment (double check) - and they didn't seem very interested in philosophical questions such as "Where did you file your income taxes last year and do you have a current Saskatchewan health card that I can see?" (Just kidding - just a little poke at a couple of the main criticisms of Link and his time in Alberta.  My question was actually how each of them see themselves as carrying on the legacy of Tommy Douglas.)- Speaking of Tommy, in his closing remarks, Yens talked about how there once was a politician who was first elected at age 34 and who was an outsider to his own party fighting the status quo but on the strength of his big ideas, became one of Saskatchewan's greatest leaders and our nation's Greatest Canadian. And all I could think was "wow, how nice of Yens to endorse Ryan!" - in answer to the question about seniors (check), Ryan mentioned his idea for SaskPharm (get it? SaskFarm?), a new Crown Crop (oops, "Corp) which would manufacture generic drugs, sell them at cost to our government, develop new drugs, value-add to the raw materials produced in Saskatchewan, etc. When I went to my first organizers' meeting, I asked "What's his big idea? What's Ryan's Medicare?" and the person who responded mentioned SaskPharm. That's just one of the reasons I got excited about Ryan's candidacy - this is a guy who isn't afraid to dream the big dreams. (To put it in a library context on the off-chance that any librarians are still reading, I've posted the idea before that, if libraries didn't exist today, could they be started with the answer being "probably not". Similarly, if Medicare didn't exist in Canada today, could it be started? Probably not. But if Ryan gets in, I think we'll have a real chance to see if we can make some really radical, really big ideas fly.) - Dwain Lingenfelter has a booming voice. I can't help but wonder if you develop that in parliament shouting at the other party? I mean, we've all done that school trip to the Legislature and we've all been shocked that it's a bunch of people, obstentiously in charge of our government, yelling at each other and acting like kids in the sand box. Deb Higgins doesn't though. Must be just his natural voice. - quote of the night goes to Ryan while talking about Labour (as in unions, not as in pregnancy). "Labour is like the ugly prom date of politics. The Sask Party won't get in bed with labour because they don't want to be seen by the business community as doing anything for unions. The NDP only gets in bed with labour during elections and when they need money. But if everybody thinks we're in bed with them all the time already, let's get some action at least!" Huge crowd response on that one. - Shea's anger moment of the night was when Deb Higgins talked glowingly of a couple integrated facilities that do such a wonderful job of giving their users a holistic approach "like the new Tatagwa View in Weyburn where all houses are arranged in a circle and long-term residents can access the kitchens and there's a daycare in the middle of the facility where residents can see children playing...which we all know is very healing." Yeah, except if a resident goes near the kitchen in Tatagwa View, they will quickly be steered away from the hot burners and running water, the day care has windows plastered with art where you don't really see children even if you're allowed to roam the halls near it and there is still a huge lingering anger among many on staff and in the community that the original Souris Valley Mental Hospital was torn down to build this new compound which is already showing lots of building deficiencies after only being open for a few years. (Pace agrees with his mom that this daycare sucked!) - I think it was Deb Higgins who made the point that she should be elected because she provides a true choice from Brad Wall. Dwain Lingenfelter sat there nodding his head and I wanted to scream out "Why are you nodding? She's talking about you!" - doing phone banking from Ryan, I called at least one senior who told me they were voting for Dwain because "he's a nice young man". As I said, Dwain is my dad's age and my dad is at an age where one gets to order off a very special menu at Perkins. Answers like that, combined with the average age of the attendees tonight being somewhere north of 60, makes me realise that the party has a hell of a lot to do to renew itself! (Although it was a sweet touch to get a 14 year old kid up to give the fundraising spiel before they passed the collection plate.) - On that note, afterwards, Shea asked me, "in twenty years, if Pace comes up to us and says there's this exciting new candidate I'm supporting and your guy - Ryan Meili - has had a good run as Premier for the last couple decades but now it's time to move on", what would we do? Would we listen to our son?" Similarly, I don't know if Ryans' message of party renewal caught on with many of the people in the crowd wearing the bright orange "Link" buttons. But I hope so. - oh hell, since I'm rambling, I'll throw in two more Link anecdotes, one from Shea's dad and one from mine. When I was in undergrad, I signed up with the local cable company for my TV & Internet which got me two free movie rentals in their store. I went there with my dad one day and seeing a guy who looked like he was an employee of the company (smartly dressed in a blazer), dad asked him where the bathroom was. The guy looked momentarily confused then pointed vaguely towards the back of the store. I looked over and saw that my dad had just asked the Deputy Premier of Saskatchewan where the can was! (To be fair, dad likely would've recognized him in any other context but probably didn't expect to see him standing in the Comedy Aisle at Cable Regina.) The gist of the other one is this... Shea's dad was quite involved in some farm protest activities maybe a decade ago (someday I'll post about the night we helped "occupy" the Saskatchewan Legislature overnight) and he ended up giving a speech at one rally that Mr. Lingenfelter was at. Dennis ended up talking to Dwain and asked "What are you going to do when all the farms die and everybody moves to Alberta?" Dwain replied "Well, then I guess I'll just go with them." Sort of reminiscent of this clip making the rounds of the YouTube of Dwain at a roast soon after he left the NDP and moved to Alberta. I'm actually of the opinion that this is getting way blown out of proportion since it's a roast for godssake - people making rude and offensive jokes is the whole point. But yeah, perhaps some of that flippancy that my father-in-law saw from the then-Deputy Premier as he expressed his frustration that family farming was dying in rural Saskatchewan has some truth to it? Sunday, April 19
More on Donations to Saskatchewan NDP Leadership Candidates
by
Jason
on Sun 19 Apr 2009 08:24 AM CST
As a follow-up to my post about the list of donors who've given more than $250 to each of the four NDP leadership candidates, I'd like to point out that The Accidental Jurist has done some investigative journalism (at least someone is - thanks for nothing MSM!) into the background of each candidates' major donors which is pretty revealing.
Here's what he found... - Deb Higgins is getting more than half of her support from former and current MLA's. What does this mean? Perhaps it's not just activists and the far left wing of the party who are in the "anybody but Link" camp? The other major revelation is that her largest donor appears to have also maxed out his donations to the Conservative candidate in the 2008 Federal election who narrowly beat the NDP's candidate in the Moose Jaw riding. - Yens Pedersen appears to have two sources of funding - his family and members of the legal community - and his total donations ($3100) are less than the biggest single donation received by each of the other three candidates. - Ryan Meili's biggest donation ($5000) comes from a guy who's a member of a band in Saskatoon and also a big advocate for increased use of bicycles. (I admit, I did the same Google searches that the Jurist appears to have done on this one and I remember my conclusion "Wow, I bet you can afford to do a lot of $5000 donations if you don't own a car!") - the biggest surprises are in regards to Dwain Lingenfelter's donors' connections and past donation histories. I'm just going to quote the Jurist here because it's such a good summary: Not surprisingly, Higgins isn't alone in receiving a substantial amount of money from sources which might not be expected to donating to an NDP race. Instead, the clear leader in that department is Dwain Lingenfelter, whose fund-raising lead includes: - $2,000 from Chancery Properties Ltd., whose only apparent previous political contribution was to the provincial Libs in 2005; - $1,000 from Earnscliffe Strategy Group, best known for its federal Lib connections; - $2,000 from Glencoe Developments, a condominium developer based on the AB side of Lloydminster; - $2,000 from Prairie Pipeline Contractors, which has participated in a Lingenfelter-led trade delegation to Mexico; and - $8,000 in donations from businesses which don't seem to have any public Saskatchewan presence based on a quick look at MySask as well as Google search results, including Reliable Property Management ($5,000, tied for Lingenfelter's largest donation), G5 Management ($1,000), Merma Developments ($1,000) and Sadig Holdings ($1,000). I know Ryan's running a positive campaign (and doing an amazing job of it) but man, I wish he'd do a mail drop to every single person on the NDP membership list to point these facts out. I mean, to me, there's a huge difference between going negative (that would be something like attacking Lingenfelter because he's remarried to someone much younger than him - which is totally irrelevant as far as I'm concerned) and pointing out facts like these which are *very* pertinent to the race and to the future direction (and obligations?) of the party's potential new leader. Friday, April 17
Friday Fun Link - Separated At Birth? (April 17, 2009)
by
Jason
on Fri 17 Apr 2009 11:57 PM CST
Serendipity can be a wonderful thing. Every morning, I meet for a brief staff meeting with my colleagues in my unit at the library. Since the office where we meet is right by the DVD collection, I usually take a moment to peruse the day's offerings.
Today, I happened upon a copy of "Prairie Giant: The Tommy Douglas Story". I'd watched the mini-series when it was first broadcast on CBC but with all the politicking lately, thought it was worth watching again. [2009/05/12 edit - and lucky for DVD copies since CBC apparently faced some controversy with how the Jimmy Gardiner character was portrayed and is not planning to re-broadcast the mini-series again - did I read somewhere due to legal action?] Looking at the face of actor, Michael Therriault who was cast to play Tommy Douglas, I couldn't help notice a striking similarity. Perhaps that's a good omen for Ryan's campaign?   Thursday, April 16
Ryan Meili is Money Baby!
by
Jason
on Thu 16 Apr 2009 05:11 PM CST
The NDP has released the names of everyone who has donated over $250 to one of the leadership candidates so far and I have to say, even as a Ryan Meili supporter, I was surprised to see that, when you look at the donations from individuals, Ryan has raised nearly as much as Lingenfelter - $16 600 vs. $13 700. (Deb Higgins has raised a shade more than Ryan at $14 000 and Yens Pedersen is at $3100.)
Just as with looking at Facebook support, you have to take this with a grain of salt since Lingenfelter has raised a whackload from corporations, unions and individuals-who-donated-as-corporations which none of the other candidates have done (of the candidates who are "anybody but Lingenfelter" only Pedersen got $1000 from a law firm - presumably his own?). The list also doesn't tell the tale of small donations - is Meili raising a lot from his youthful supporters via $10 and $25 donations like Barack Obama did? The David Forbes endorsement yesterday will also help raise Ryan's profile and legitimize him in the eyes of many within the party who may now give him a second look. Plus who knows what endorsements are to come? (Oh, and if you're curious, the PA Leadership Forum is being carried live by Missinipi Broadcasting. The doors open at 5pm - not sure when the debate begins. Thanks to the Accidental Jurist for the head's up.) Wednesday, April 15
Ryan Meili Gets Major Endorsement, (Uhm, Also Gets Arrested...Nearly A Decade Ago)
by
Jason
on Wed 15 Apr 2009 09:17 PM CST
David Forbes, a sitting MLA, endorsed Ryan Meili today adding to the momentum that the campaign is building heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
Buried near the end of the story is the fact that the local CTV affiliate took the opportunity at the press conference to ask a question about Ryan being arrested nearly a decade ago during a peaceful protest during the Summit of the Americas (for which he received an absolute discharge and had the conviction striken from his record a year later.) I don't know if the journalist was trying to play a bit of "gotcha" journalism but for me, when I hear that, all I can think is: "Ryan Meili is the only candidate running for the leadership of the NDP who's actually had the balls to be arrested for standing up for his beliefs." I bet there are lots of NDP old-timers, unionists and activists who will actually be impressed knowing this little detail about Ryan's personal history. Heck, even my son was impressed by Ryan's youthful arrest...  Monday, April 13
Music Monday - "I was sitting there watching TV/Wendy came and sat on my knee."
by
Jason
on Mon 13 Apr 2009 08:54 PM CST
In honour of the last episode of "Corner Gas" tonight, here's one of my favourite songs by the Odds, the former band of Craig Northey who wrote the "Corner Gas" theme song, "Not A Lot Going On".
(Unfortunately, the clip is from MuchMoreMusic who have more crap around the edge of the screen than the Business News Network. Probably fortunately for those viewers with sensitive ears, this clip is the adapted-for-TV version. On the album, the lyric definitely isn't "I was making love to Wendy under the stars".) Thursday, April 2
Saskatchewan NDP Leadership Forums - Lingenfelter Pwned By Meili and Pedersen?
by
Jason
on Thu 02 Apr 2009 08:33 PM CST
Tonight is the first in a series of province-wide forums among the NDP leadership candidates in Moose Jaw. (At least I think it is - the official NDP site I just linked to doesn't list this event - though the candidates' sites do. Who knows?)
Anyhow, I'm pretty sure it is the first forum tonight and that's a good excuse to touch on something I mentioned in passing in a recent post. I said "[Lingenfelter's Google Map mash-up is a] great use of technology, very interactive, very cool way to represent that Lingenfelter is running a province-wide campaign and trying to reach out to all parts of the province (of course, this also subtly hints at his apparent ability to set the rules he wants the other candidates to follow - but that's a different post.)" That last line was a reference to Lingenfelter's announcement that he was "concerned that the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party has decided to ignore the Far North in its series of Leadership Candidate Public Forums next month, and says he has decided to organize his own public forum in the region and invite the other leadership candidates to take part." I think I know what he was trying to do with this move - in one fell swoop, he could show himself as representing the whole province, as someone who's concerned with First Nations issues and acting like a leader should. Except that (to me at least), it smacked of John McCain's "suspending his campaign" when the financial crisis hit - as much about political grandstanding as the other points. To me, there's also a fair bit of arrogance in how he unilaterally announced this - arrogance not only towards the other candidates but to the hard working staff and volunteers of the party he's trying to lead. Why call them out publicly like that? What purpose does that serve? There was one other little detail that indicates to me that this was more about political grandstanding than honest concern about the needs of the people in northern Saskatchewan. He scheduled his forum for April 26, two days after the deadline day for selling NDP memberships! So, in a welcome show of unity (that perhaps reflects the generational shift better than anything else I've seen in this leadership contest - Lingenfelter's top-down, "I'm the boss (already)" move versus a joint announcement from Meili & Pedersen, the two youngest candidates that they were organizing their own northern candidates' forum *before* the deadline for selling memberships to give the people of northern Saskatchewan a real opportunity to have their concerns heard.) "Pedersen and Meili agree that a public forum before the April 24 deadline offers Northerners full participation in the democratic process, rather than what could be seen as merely token consultation." In that last link, the Accidental Jurist speculates on how the two senior candidates - Lingenfelter and Higgins - would react to this development. But recently, he posted an update that his sources were saying Deb Higgins is planning to accept the invitation to the alternate forum leaving Lingenfelter out in the cold. As they say in Internet circles - pwned! |
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